Dutch universities and universities of applied sciences now deliver far more ICT graduates than in 2015, and the IT shortage has barely moved. Our conclusion: the bottleneck is experience, not degrees. Employers who wait for education to solve it are waiting for something education cannot deliver, and every employer that hires only experienced people makes the experienced layer of the future smaller.
Supply rose steeply
Eurostat graduate data show ICT output at bachelor and master level growing much faster since 2015 than any other large field, and far faster than higher education as a whole. Engineering and health grew too, but more slowly. ICT is not a field education has neglected.
And the shortage held
Over the same years, the share of Dutch companies with hard-to-fill IT vacancies stayed high. Among firms that recruited IT staff, most reported trouble filling at least part of their vacancies in 2018, in 2022 and again in 2024. A steep rise in supply moved that share only slightly.
Why more graduates were not enough
Scale is the plainest reason. CBS figures show employment in IT occupations growing by far more people each year than the annual graduate output. Not every graduate takes an IT job and many entrants come from other fields, so the comparison is rough, but the order of magnitude holds: education covers only part of the growth, before anyone who leaves is replaced.
Experience is the sharper reason. Among employers with hard-to-fill IT vacancies, missing work experience is a leading complaint. A graduate does not fill a vacancy that asks for several years in the job. Education cannot supply that.
Demand has also moved. Employers want cloud, security, data and AI specialists, while generic IT profiles lose ground. A degree programme takes years to adjust, and demand changes faster.
The comparison with other countries is telling. The Netherlands sits mid-table in Europe on the share of graduates in ICT. Finland produces a markedly larger share and also reports fewer hard-to-fill IT vacancies. A large intake and less scarcity go together there.
What this does not show
The graduate series runs to 2024 and describes the past of the pipeline. ING reports that enrolment in IT programmes is now falling, and because a programme takes years, that fall reaches the labour market around 2027. The hard-to-fill measure counts companies, not vacancies, so it says nothing about how long roles stay open. The Finnish comparison shows a link, not a cause. If falling enrolment reverses, or if AI tools sharply cut the experience a junior needs to be productive, our reading changes.
What you can do
- Drop experience requirements that only filter. Ask which tasks truly need years in the job, and open the other roles to graduates.
- Treat hiring juniors as a supply decision. A junior hired now is the experienced specialist you will not have to compete for later.
- Build a structured learning path for the specialisms you need, such as cloud, security and data, rather than waiting for the market to produce them.
- Watch enrolment figures, not graduate figures. They tell you what the pipeline looks like around 2027 and after. More on the software engineering field.