Dutch employers who hope that workers from abroad will end the labour shortage are counting on a surplus that does not exist. The OECD finds the rich world as a whole close to its tightest labour market on record, and the Netherlands sits at the tight end of that group. Our conclusion: international recruitment stays useful for specific roles, but it is no structural answer. The answer sits closer to home, region by region.
Tight everywhere at once
The OECD Employment Outlook 2026, published in July, describes a labour market at historic extremes. Unemployment across member countries is close to the lowest level since the series began. Employment and participation reached record highs early in 2026. Eurostat places Dutch unemployment well below both the OECD and the EU average.
That undermines a common reflex. When a market runs dry, employers look to the neighbours, to the rest of Europe, or further away. The reflex assumes a pool of idle workers somewhere else. The review offers little support for it. The countries Dutch employers recruit from face the same shortage, and their own employers hold on to the same people.
Cooling without loosening
The review also marks a turn. Employment growth slows and unemployment creeps up slightly. Yet the structural shortages stay. Demand cools; demography does not. The Dutch market has shown this pattern for some time, and the OECD now describes it as the general picture across the rich world.
For workforce planning that is the point that matters. A slower economy is no reason to expect easier hiring. The people who retire still leave, and fewer young people arrive to take their place.
Wages and regions
The review holds further findings that deserve a Dutch reader. First, real wages in a substantial group of OECD countries are still below their level from before the inflation wave. Scarcity and lost purchasing power exist side by side. That explains why wage pressure feels so persistent even as wage growth slows: people who have not caught up keep pushing.
Second, the theme of this edition. Differences between regions within a country are larger than the differences between countries. A national unemployment figure hides local markets that barely resemble each other. A role that fills easily in one province can stay open for months in another.
What this does not show
The OECD average blends very different economies, and the review itself stresses the spread beneath it. A record on the average does not rule out countries or sectors with real slack. The OECD and Eurostat figures also come from different months, so a precise ranking would claim more than the data allow. The review says nothing about specific occupations either: for a niche specialism, a pool abroad can still exist.
Our reading would change if unemployment in neighbouring countries rose sharply while Dutch shortages held. That would open a real surplus across the border.
What you can do
- Use international recruitment for specific, hard roles, and stop treating it as the plan for your whole workforce.
- Plan per region. Check where your current staff and applicants live before you set the location and home-working terms of a vacancy.
- Do not wait for a cooling economy to ease hiring. Start replacement planning for staff who retire in the coming years now.
- Expect salary talks to stay tough while candidates still feel the loss of purchasing power, and prepare your offer with that in mind.