Most of the work Dutch employers will recruit for until 2035 already exists. The European forecast for the Netherlands expects the large majority of job openings to come from people leaving their occupation, not from new jobs. And most openings will require high qualifications, a larger share than in the EU as a whole. Recruitment in the coming years is therefore structural work, and the competition for highly educated people is the playing field, not a passing phase.
Openings come from people leaving
Cedefop, the European centre for vocational training, models labour demand per country, sector, occupation and qualification level. Its 2025 edition for the Netherlands expects employment to grow only slightly to 2035, slower even than the EU average. Job openings therefore barely come from expansion. Most stem from retirement and from people moving to other work.
Among technicians and associate professionals almost every expected opening is a replacement. For that group, recruitment to 2035 is close to purely a matter of filling the places of people who leave. The demography behind it is sharper than elsewhere in Europe: the oldest age groups in the Dutch labour force keep growing faster than the EU average. The greying of the workplace here is still building.
Where the openings fall
Professionals account for by far the largest block of openings. Shrinking and stable occupations keep producing them too: clerical and elementary work still generate a noticeable share of all openings, almost entirely through replacement. By sector, business services grow fastest, followed by construction. Health grows steadily with the ageing population. Retail, a large employer, shrinks.
The qualification bar rises
Most Dutch openings to 2035 require high qualifications, well above the European average. Cedefop expects supply to rise along with it: the highly qualified share of the labour force grows, the medium-qualified share falls and the low-qualified share shrinks sharply. That shifts the scarcity but does not dissolve it. Demand for highly qualified people still outruns supply, so the tension stays at the top, exactly where today's shortage lists already sit.
What this does not show
These are model outcomes under assumptions about growth, demography and policy, not measurements. Cedefop published a new round in 2026 with a deeper replacement analysis; it points the same way, but the details may differ. The forecast speaks of qualification levels, not fields of study: it says that most openings need a high qualification, not in what. The Dutch ROA forecast uses its own method and does not always land in the same place. A sharp rise in productivity, or much higher immigration of skilled workers, would change the balance this reading rests on.
What you can do
- Plan recruitment as a standing task. Demand that comes from departure does not move with the economy, so waiting for a quieter market does not help.
- Map which roles in your organisation will turn over before 2035. Technical and associate professional roles are where nearly all openings are replacement.
- Do not write off shrinking job families. Clerical and support roles keep needing new people as the current ones leave.
- Prepare for permanent competition for highly qualified people. Shorten your process, sharpen your offer and keep a list of people you have already met.