18 October 2026

Europe's shortage lists point to surplus elsewhere

The Netherlands has a long list of shortage occupations and almost no occupations in surplus. There is hardly anyone at home to move from an oversupplied job into a scarce one. Our conclusion: Dutch employers face a supply problem, not a distribution problem, and for some occupations the official lists of other European countries show where that supply sits. For care roles they do not, because care is scarce everywhere.

The European map

Every year the European Labour Authority collects the shortage and surplus occupations that national employment services report through the EURES network. The 2025 edition, published in June 2026, shows shortages in nearly every occupation group somewhere in Europe. They concentrate among professionals, skilled trades and machine operators, and weigh heaviest and longest in health and care.

The report also shows that a large share of European employment sits in occupations that are clearly out of balance, with widespread shortages or widespread surpluses. That is the structural state of the market, not a passing episode.

Many shortages, almost no surplus

The Netherlands sits among the countries with the longest shortage list in Europe. Its surplus list is among the shortest. The report adds that, among the large shortage reporters, the Netherlands combines high vacancy rates with low unemployment.

That sharpens the diagnosis. Countries such as Austria and Finland report long surplus lists, so they can move people between occupations at home. The Netherlands has little to move. Recruitment, not reallocation, is the route.

The asymmetry as a lead

Many occupations appear on the shortage list in one country and on the surplus list in another. The report calls this untapped potential for recruitment across borders. For a Dutch employer that is practical: for a scarce role here, an official surplus list elsewhere can point to the country where qualified people struggle to find work. That evidence comes from national authorities, not from a vendor with an interest.

Care is the exception. Doctors, nurses and care workers appear on nearly every country's shortage list. Whoever recruits for care competes at European scale.

What this does not show

The lists are national reports with national methods and thresholds. A country that reports thoroughly lists more occupations than one that reports sparingly, so the length of a list says something about presence, not about depth. A listed occupation is not a number of people: the report does not measure how many workers are missing. And recruitment across borders runs into language, recognition of qualifications and housing. The map shows where supply sits, not how easily it moves. Our reading would change if the Dutch surplus list grew, because that would make retraining at home a real alternative.

What you can do

  • Check whether your hard roles are on the Dutch shortage list. It is a defensible argument for budget and time in your own organisation.
  • Check the EURES surplus lists of other countries for the same occupation before you recruit abroad.
  • Budget for language support, recognition of diplomas and housing. Without them, a foreign hire rarely lasts.
  • For care roles, invest in retention and in training your own people. The rest of Europe is short too.