In the second quarter of 2026, the Netherlands had some 229,000 working software and application developers, against 91,000 in 2013. That stock is not the market. At the national switching rate of 4.0% per quarter, we estimate that about 9,000 of them move each quarter, and because only 15% of switchers go straight into a permanent contract, just over 1,300 per quarter step directly into a new permanent role. Meanwhile, 55,400 vacancies arose in 2025 for the wider group of ICT specialists, almost 14,000 per quarter against an estimated 20,000 or more switchers. Our conclusion: whoever waits for applications waits for someone from a thin stream to happen to pass by. The 220,000 who do not move this quarter can only be reached by approaching them.
Anyone looking for a developer is often given a reassuring number: the Netherlands has 229,000 software and application developers. The number is correct, and it does not help. The stock is not the market. The market is the thin stream of people who actually change employer in a given quarter, and that stream is more than twenty times smaller.
This analysis calculates how large the real, reachable market for developers is. The counts come from CBS; the flow estimates and the conclusions are ours and are marked as such.
The stock grows fast, and it does not help
The number of working software and application developers has grown two and a half times since 2013: from 91,000 to 229,000 in the second quarter of 2026. The wider group of ICT specialists, which also includes system administrators, network specialists and ICT advisers, grew to 516,000.
| Year | Software and application developers |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 91,000 |
| 2019 | 138,000 |
| 2024 | 208,000 |
| 2026 (Q2) | 229,000 |
Yet for employers the market has felt empty for years. That is not an illusion. Almost all of those 229,000 people have a job, and people with a job hardly apply.
The flow is the market
Nationally, 4.0% of employees change employer each quarter. Apply that rate to the occupation and the market shrinks from 229,000 to about 9,000 developers who start moving in a quarter. This is our estimate, not a CBS figure: the switching rate of the whole employee population, applied to one occupational group.
Within that sits an even smaller core. Of all switchers, only 15% step straight into a new permanent contract, 47,000 of 320,000 in the second quarter of 2026. Applied to developers: just over 1,300 per quarter who switch and land directly in a permanent role. Whoever opens a permanent role and waits for whoever comes by is fishing in that sub-stream, shared among all employers, sectors and regions in the Netherlands.
Two vacancies for every three switchers
How crowded the demand side is shows in the same occupational classification. For the wide group of ICT specialists, some 55,400 vacancies arose in 2025, almost 14,000 per quarter. The peak was 76,300 in 2022; after the cooling, inflow is back around its pre-pandemic level.
| Year | Vacancies arising, ICT specialists |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 52,100 |
| 2019 | 59,100 |
| 2021 | 74,900 |
| 2022 | 76,300 |
| 2024 | 55,900 |
| 2025 | 55,400 |
Put the two flows side by side, both for the group of 516,000 ICT specialists: by our estimate more than 20,000 switchers per quarter, against almost 14,000 new vacancies per quarter. For every three people who move, two vacancies arise. And only 15% of switchers land directly in a permanent role: an estimated 3,000 per quarter, for all employers combined.
What the figures do not show
The employed labour force includes the self-employed; a sizeable part of the 229,000 is therefore not employed and falls outside the switching figures. The switching rate of 4.0% is a national average across all occupations; CBS does not publish the actual rate for developers at this level. Both effects make our 9,000 more likely too high than too low: the real stream of available developers is probably smaller.
The vacancy figures by occupation run to 2025 and count vacancies arising, not unique roles: a role opened twice counts twice. At this level the classification has no separate line for software developers alone; the demand figures cover the wider group of ICT specialists. Every figure in this paper that is not a direct CBS value is marked as an estimate.
Our conclusion
There are not 229,000 available developers. There is a stream of at most 9,000 per quarter that moves, of which just over 1,300 land directly in a permanent role, and thousands of new vacancies per quarter compete for it. Whoever recruits by posting a vacancy and waiting has chosen the smallest pond there is.
The large market is the stock that does not move this quarter: roughly 220,000 people with a job, most of whom never open a job site. That market can only be reached by approaching people directly with a concrete offer. And whoever approaches has to remove the threshold that makes the stream so thin: a move usually costs the permanent contract, so a permanent contract from the first day is the scarcest offer in the market.
- Size a developer vacancy on the flow, not the stock: a few thousand per quarter, nationally, for everyone together.
- Speed wins the flow: people who move have several options within weeks.
- The stock is won by approaching, not by advertising.
- Offer a permanent contract from day one; only 15% of switchers get one, so it stands out immediately.
Method
Occupation counts come from CBS StatLine table 86320NED (employed labour force by occupation, BRC 2014), quarterly figures, retrieved on 1 September 2026: occupation 0814 software and application developers (229,000 in Q2 2026; 91,000 in 2013) and occupational group 081 ICT specialists (516,000 in Q2 2026). Vacancies come from table 85081NED (vacancies arising by occupational classification), annual figures 2018 to 2025, retrieved on 1 September 2026. Switching figures come from table 85390NED, second quarter of 2026, retrieved on 31 August 2026. The headline figures were checked again against all three tables on 28 September 2026.
The flow estimates are by Pearson & Partners: stock times the national switching rate of 4.0% per quarter (229,000 gives about 9,000; 516,000 gives more than 20,000), and times the national share of switchers landing directly in a permanent contract, 47,000 of 320,000 (giving just over 1,300 and some 3,000 respectively). The quarterly vacancy average is the annual total divided by four. These are derived orders of magnitude, not CBS figures. All tables are published under CC BY 4.0.